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Tue 08 Sep 15 at BBA, London
In Making Sense of Markets, Kevin Gardiner argues that received economic wisdom is far too pessimistic, and that investment opportunities have been missed as a result. He suggests that the great panic of 2008 had its roots in finance and liquidity, not in a flawed global economy, and shows why some fears – debt, demography, Western decadence for example – have been overdone.
The book also suggests how best to capitalise on this. But, in contrast to modern portfolio theory’s emphasis on the “optimal” portfolio, it argues that practical investing is about “satisficing”. It emphasises context; questions economic knowledge; notes insights from behavioural finance; and stresses that investors are not necessarily paid for taking risk – a “postmodern portfolio theory”, perhaps.
Conclusion? Our children will likely be better off than we are; long-term investing is still worthwhile; and portfolios should be constructed simply and inexpensively.
Global Investment Strategist, Rothschild Wealth Management
Kevin Gardiner is Global Investment Strategist at Rothschild Wealth Management. He was formerly CIO (Europe) at Barclays Wealth Management, and previously worked at several investment banks and the Bank of England.
In 1994, at Morgan Stanley, Kevin wrote the Celtic Tiger report on the Irish economy.
He is a Governor at UWC Atlantic College; a member of the Welsh Assembly Government’s Advisory Panel on Finance and Professional Services; and a retained speaker at the CFA, and a member of its 2010 UK working party on ethics. He was educated at Glan Ely Comprehensive (Cardiff), UWC Atlantic College (Llantwit Major), LSE (BSc Econ, first class honours and university prizes) and Cambridge (MPhil Econ).